Football Result

Verification of the Result Prediction

Power Comparison in the League

Team Formations

Estimated Goal Scoring Chance

Recent Matches before the game

H2H Record before the game

In the first leg of the 2025 Copa do Brasil Third Round, São Paulo defeated Náutico 2-1 at MorumBIS. Luciano scored a brace for São Paulo, with goals in the 21st and 46th minutes. Caio Vitor scored the lone goal for Náutico in the 17th minute. São Paulo largely dominated the game, controlling 58.4% of the possession and registering 17 total shots compared to Náutico's 9. However, Náutico's goalkeeper made 4 saves, while São Paulo's keeper wasn't forced into any saves.
São Paulo played with a 4-2-3-1 formation, while Náutico opted for a 4-3-3. São Paulo committed slightly more fouls (13) compared to Náutico (12), while Náutico received two yellow cards to São Paulo's one. The AI-powered prediction correctly anticipated a São Paulo win, with a pre-game win probability of 58.1% for the home side. The AI did not expect a balanced game, which was accurate given São Paulo's dominance in possession and shots.
São Paulo has been in decent form recently, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches. Before this game, they secured a 2-1 victory against Santos, a 2-0 win against Libertad in CONMEBOL Libertadores and draws against Ceara, Botafogo and Cruzeiro, all for Brazilian Serie A. Náutico's recent form has been mixed, with wins against Vitoria, Santa Cruz de Natal in Copa do Brasil and losses against Cruzeiro in Copa do Brasil. In their last five head-to-head matches, São Paulo has won three and lost two.
São Paulo's next match is against Fortaleza in the Brazilian Serie A. Fortaleza's recent form includes two draws and two losses in their last five matches, with a single win. Náutico will face São Paulo again in the second leg of the Copa do Brasil. In their last five head-to-head matches, São Paulo has won three and Náutico has won two.
São Paulo's recent games saw a tendency to draw matches in Brazilian Serie A, highlighting the need to convert dominance into goals, and their upcoming match against Fortaleza will be a test. Náutico will need to improve their attacking efficiency and defensive solidity to overturn the deficit in the second leg.

On April 29, 2025, São Paulo will face Náutico in a Copa do Brasil match at MorumBIS, São Paulo, Brazil. An AI model predicts a victory for São Paulo, with a 58.1% win probability, significantly higher than Náutico's 18.0%. The draw probability stands at 23.9%. São Paulo, with a team rate of 0.64, enters the match after a mixed run of form, including a recent draw against Ceará in the Brazilian Serie A and a victory against Libertad in CONMEBOL Libertadores. Their attacking midfielder, Luciano, will be a key player to watch, known for his clinical finishing. Náutico, rated at 0.419, has shown glimpses of their quality in previous Copa do Brasil games. Historically, São Paulo has dominated head-to-head encounters, especially at home. While Náutico will be looking to cause an upset, the AI suggests São Paulo's superior quality and home advantage will likely secure them a win.