Football Result

Verification of the Result Prediction

Power Comparison in the League

Team Formations

Estimated Goal Scoring Chance

Recent Matches before the game

H2H Record before the game

Deportes Tolima secured a surprising 1-0 victory against Independiente Medellín at the Atanasio Girardot in this Colombian Primera A match. Jersson González's goal in the 80th minute proved to be the difference. Independiente Medellín, playing a 3-4-1-2 formation, dominated possession with nearly 70% and unleashed a barrage of 26 shots, but only managed to get 5 on target, struggling to convert their dominance into goals. Deportes Tolima, lined up in a 4-4-2, were clinical with one of their two shots on target finding the back of the net.
The AI-powered pre-game prediction favored Independiente Medellín with a 44.2% win probability, while Deportes Tolima had a 29.1% chance, making this result an upset. The AI model did not expect a balanced game, but the tight scoreline suggests otherwise. Deportes Tolima's defensive solidity and efficiency in front of goal allowed them to overcome Medellín's attacking pressure.
Independiente Medellín's recent form has been inconsistent, with two draws and a loss in their last three league games prior to this match. Their next game is against Deportivo Pereira at home. Their inability to convert chances into goals, as seen in this game, is a worrying trend. Deportivo Pereira, on the other hand, are in good form with three wins and two draws in their last five.
Deportes Tolima have been more solid recently, with three wins, one draw and one loss in their previous five league matches.
Looking at previous encounters, Independiente Medellín have struggled against Deportes Tolima, especially at home, with the last match at the Atanasio Girardot ending in a 0-1 defeat for the home side in September 2024. The last five head-to-head matches show a balanced record.
Independiente Medellín will need to improve their finishing and defensive composure if they want to get a victory against Deportivo Pereira. Deportes Tolima will try to build on this victory.

On May 15, 2025, Independiente Medellín will face Deportes Tolima at the Atanasio Girardot in a highly anticipated Colombian Primera A match. AI is predicting a win for Independiente Medellín, with a 44.2% probability compared to Deportes Tolima's 29.1%. Despite Deportes Tolima slightly better rate (0.576) than Independiente Medellín (0.544), the home advantage seems to be a significant factor. Independiente Medellín's key player, Miguel Monsalve, will be crucial in dictating the midfield. However, their recent form has been inconsistent, marked by draws and a loss to Bucaramanga. Deportes Tolima will rely on their striker, Diego Herazo, to challenge Medellín's defense. The AI gives 26.6% probability for a draw.